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China keeps lending benchmark rates unchanged, as expected
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45% and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The steady fixings came after the central bank kept its medium-term interbank liquidity rate unchanged last week. The LPR, which banks normally charge their best clients, is set by 18 designated commercial banks who submit proposed rates to the central bank every month.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States, outflows
"There's increasing evidence that the cyclical upturn in the global electronics sector is driving a bottoming-out of global trade and China's trade data is the latest sign," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Reuters GraphicsSouth Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, fell at their slowest pace in 11 months in September. Semiconductors make up the bulk of their trade, signalling improving appetite among Chinese manufacturers for components to re-export in finished goods. However, Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference on Friday that China's trade still faces a complex and severe external environment. Overall, though, total merchandise imports fell at a slower pace, down 6.3%, reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic demand.
Persons: Smart, David Kirton, Xu Tianchen, it's, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Zou Lan, Premier Li Qiang, Li, Robert Carnell, Kevin Yao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill Organizations: Trade, REUTERS, Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters Graphics South, Semiconductors, Administration of Customs, ASEAN, Federal Reserve, China Economics, Capital Economics, People's Bank of, Premier, Bloomberg, ING, Thomson Locations: Qianhai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, BEIJING, United States, Europe, Stocks, People's Bank of China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific
SHANGHAI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is expected to boost liquidity while keeping the borrowing cost steady when rolling over its medium-term policy loans on Friday, a Reuters survey showed, after a string of data showed some signs of economic stabilisation. China has already lowered the medium-term policy rate twice since June to stimulate credit demand and support a faltering economic recovery. New bank lending in China beat expectations by nearly quadrupling in August from July's level, as the central bank sought to shore up economic growth amid soft demand at home and abroad. To revive broad credit demand and rescue the troubled property sector, China unexpectedly cut the MLF rate last month. For this reason alone, it seems unlikely that the PBOC will embrace large-scale rate cuts."
Persons: Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: People's Bank of China, OCBC Bank, U.S, Capital Economics, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, China, United States, OCBC Bank .
"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai
HONG KONG (AP) — China's exports and imports both fell in August from a year earlier, reflecting tepid global demand that is adding to pressures on its slowing economy. Customs data released Thursday showed exports for August slumped 8.8% to $284.87 billion in the fourth straight month of decline. The total trade surplus fell to $68.36 billion from $80.6 billion in July. China’s imports from Russia, mostly oil and gas, increased 13.3% from a year earlier to $11.52 billion. Exports to the European Union tumbled 10.5% from the same time last year to $41.3 billion, while imports of European goods declined 2.5% to $24.56 billion.
Persons: ” Julian Evans, Pritchard, , August's Organizations: , Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Kremlin, European Union Locations: HONG KONG, Europe, Asia, U.S, Russia, Ukraine
"It may just be lucky that a global demand slump or non-policy related domestic forces are driving inflation lower." This disconnect led the German central bank to issue a warning to peers this week that a tough task may still lie ahead for policymakers. "The impression took hold that inflation rates will nonetheless persist for longer above the rates targeted by central banks," the Bundesbank said. Indeed, longer-term inflation expectations for the U.S. and the euro zone remain above the banks' 2% targets. But even in the best case, weaker growth will reduce demand for imports and complicate the global outlook.
Persons: JACKSON, Steve Englander, Piet Haines Christiansen, Philip Lane, Lane, Niels Graham, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Toby Chopra Organizations: Standard Chartered, The Bank of England, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Danske Bank, U.S, People's Bank of, Atlantic Council, Capital Economic, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, German, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Jackson, People's Bank of China, China
New York CNN —David Solomon, CEO and president of Goldman Sachs, is getting bad press — a lot of bad press. And while shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) may be down by more than 5% this year, they’re still up by about 40% since he took over in 2018. Goldman Sachs did not respond to requests for comment for this article. Before the Bell: What is going on at Goldman Sachs? There have been articles purporting that former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein isn’t happy with the job David Solomon has done and that he has offered to step in to help.
Persons: David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Marcus, Solomon, they’re, Bell, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Lloyd Blankfein isn’t, that’s, Lloyd, he’s, That’s, David, , Juliana Liu, Michelle Toh, ” Julian Evans, Pritchard, Zichun Huang, Hang, Lehman, Hillary, Eva Rothenberg, Harry Reid, Hilary Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Financial Times, Yale School of Management’s, Leadership Institute, Nokia, BlackBerry, Microsoft, Goldman, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, Capital Economics, Hang Seng, The Bank of Korea, Bank Indonesia, country’s National Bureau of Statistics, Harry, Harry Reid International, San Diego International Locations: New York, Lloyd, China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Asia, Las Vegas, California, Nevada, Southern California, Idaho
China's central bank cut its one-year loan prime rate Monday, while leaving its five-year rate unchanged. This was the second time China has cut this rate in three months. The PBOC left its five-year loan prime rate — the peg for most mortgages — unchanged at 4.2%, while economists expected a 15 basis point cut due to default risks from festering liquidity woes in the country's property sector. Country Garden is on the verge of default, while Evergrande filed last week for bankruptcy protection in a Manhattan court. "Hopes for a stimulus-led turnaround in economic activity largely depend on the prospect of greater fiscal support," he added.
Persons: Evergrande, China Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: People's Bank of China, Index, China Enterprises, CSI Locations: China, Manhattan, Hong Kong
What's gone wrong with China's economy
  + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
It’s a far cry from global financial meltdown of 2008, when China launched the largest stimulus package in the world and was the first major economy to emerge from the crisis. It’s also a reversal from the early days of the pandemic, when China was the only major developed economy to dodge a recession. Property woesChina’s economy has been in doldrums since April, when momentum from a strong start to the year faded. While Evergrade is still undergoing a debt restructuring, troubles at Country Garden raised fresh concerns about the Chinese economy. Beijing has so far unveiled a steady incremental drip of measures to boost the economy, including interest rate cuts and other moves to help the property market and consumer businesses.
Persons: rekindling, Ying Tang, Morgan Stanley, Xi Jinping, It’s, what’s, Evergrande, Evergrade, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, UBS, Nomura, Barclays, Garden, Zhongrong Trust, CNN, Capital Economics, , People’s Bank of China, National Health Commission, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, It’s, doldrums, Beijing, United States, Europe
Nomura analysts were equally downbeat on China's economic outlook. Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth but they don't expect a recession. It was the slowest growth since December 2022, and shows just how much of a challenge authorities face as they try to make consumption the key driver of future economic growth. MORE STIMULUSAsian stocks stalled at one-month lows, the yuan hit a 9-month nadir while the dollar held broadly firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. But we do need to lower our expectations for China's growth."
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Nie Wen, Robert Carnell, Liangping Gao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Retail, Hwabao Trust, Investment, Reuters, ING, NBS, Nomura, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific
Asian stocks were down and the dollar held firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. Investment in the property sector tumbled 8.5% year-on-year in January-July, after shrinking 7.9% in January-June, extending its fall for the 17th consecutive month. Demand for the property sector, once a pillar of economic growth, has remained weak in recent weeks. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate climbed slightly to 5.3% from 5.2% in June. After the youth jobless rate rose to record high of 21.3% in June, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at Tuesday's press conference the bureau will suspend publishing the survey-based jobless rate for the 16-24 years old from August, adding China will further improve its employment statistics.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Fu Linghui, Albee Zhang, Liangping Gao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Capital Economics, Jones, Investment, Communist Party, NBS, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailData points to a Chinese economy 'struggling for momentum,' economist saysJulian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, says there needs to be "a lot more stimulus if they really want to put a floor under growth and get the economy going again."
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Capital Economics Locations: China
China's manufacturing sector contracted in July, multiple indexes showed. Policymakers have hinted at an economic boost – but are yet to roll out a stimulus package. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The country's top decision-making body acknowledged that the economy faced "new difficulties and challenges" last week – and pledged to roll out a stimulus package "with precision and force". The Swiss bank predicted policymakers would hint at but fall short of bringing in the "big bang" stimulus package needed to revive growth.
Persons: , Beijing's, Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, P Global Manufacturing, UBS, Economics Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, Swiss, China
BEIJING, July 31 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity fell for a fourth straight month in July while the services and construction sectors teetered on the brink of contraction, official surveys showed on Monday, threatening growth prospects for the third quarter. Construction sector activity for July was its weakest since COVID-19-related workplace disruptions dissipated around February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, dropped to 51.5 from June's 53.2. "Meanwhile, we're seeing improvements in inventory levels, suggesting that with destocking nearing its end, China's manufacturing sector bottomed out in the second quarter," he added. "Unless concrete support is rolled out soon, the recent downturn in demand risks becoming self-reinforcing."
Persons: Xu Tianchen, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes, Edmund Klamann Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party, PMI, Economist Intelligence Unit, destocking, China, State, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
Ying Tang | NurPhoto | Getty ImagesThe Chinese economy could be facing a prolonged period of lower growth, a prospect which may have global ramifications after 45 years of rapid expansion and globalization. The ruling Chinese Communist Party has set a growth target of 5% for 2023, lower than usual and notably modest for a country that has averaged 9% annual GDP growth since opening up its economy in 1978. For the global economy, however, the most immediate spillover of a Chinese slowdown will likely come in commodities and the industrial cycle, as China reconfigures its economy to reduce its reliance on a property sector that has been "absorbing and driving commodity prices." "This shift from a complementary economy, where Beijing and Berlin kind of benefit from each other, to now being competitors is another big consequence of the structural slowdown," Green said. He noted that beyond the immediate loss of demand for commodities, China's reaction to its shifting economic sands will also have "second order impacts" for the global economy.
Persons: Ying Tang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Evans, it's, Xi Jinping's, Rory Green, Green Organizations: Beijing, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Triple, TS Lombard, CNBC Locations: Suzhou, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Germany, Berlin
The post-pandemic economic recovery will proceed in a "wave-like" fashion in a "tortuous" process, it added. On Tuesday, Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets cheered the Politburo's policy pledges, outperforming broader Asia-Pacific benchmarks. The Chinese property sector saw some of the strongest percentage gains in Hong Kong, with developer Country Garden rebounding more than 14% from a nine-month low. By some calculations, the country's property sector still accounts for up to a quarter of China's annual economic activity. Expanding domestic demandLate Monday, China's top leaders pledged to "actively expand domestic demand" and to "expand consumption by raising income levels."
Persons: Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, China Vanke, Goldman Sachs, China's, Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Getty, Communist, Xinhua, Barclays, Index, CSI, Longfor, China Overseas, Observers, Citi, People's Bank, China's, National, Capital Economics Locations: China, Hong Kong, outperforming, Asia
Here are some of the key measures released by the Chinese government in recent weeks. Private businessesOn Monday, China's economic planning agency announced a series of measures to promote private investment. Julian Evans-Pritchard Capital EconomicsThe NDRC said it will support private investment in sectors — such as transportation, water conservancy, clean energy, new infrastructure, advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture facilities. The agency is also encouraging private investment projects to issue real estate investment trusts (REITS) in the infrastructure sector to promote asset diversification and further broaden investment and financing channels for private investment. Business sentiment has generally soured amid lackluster economic growth after China's initial recovery following its exit from "zero Covid" faltered.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Afp, Getty, China, Private, Communist Party, National Development, Reform, Pritchard Capital, People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China Economics, Capital Economics, Household, Commerce Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai
The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".
Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing
China cuts lending benchmarks to revive slowing demand
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Thomas Peter/FILE PHOTOSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) - China cut its key lending benchmarks on Tuesday, the first such reductions in 10 months as authorities seek to shore up a slowing economic recovery, although concerns about the property market meant the easing was not as large as expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.55%, while the five-year LPR was cut by the same margin to 4.20%. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered short- and medium-term policy rates last week. "There is no need to roll out all policy measures all at once." Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.
Persons: Thomas Peter, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, China's, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kripa Jayaram, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Capital Economics, Reuters, Mainland Properties, People's Bank of China, ANZ, Jones, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, outpacing
China cuts two more key lending rates as economy sputters
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The People's Bank of China has cut several key policy rates to bolster economic growth in the world's second-largest economy. The People's Bank of China cut two more key lending rates on Tuesday for the first time in 10 months to prop up growth in the world's second largest economy. The Chinese central bank cut the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and trimmed the five-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points from 4.3% to 4.2% — for the first time since August. "On their own, 10bps cuts are too small to make a great deal of difference to monetary conditions, especially since market interbank rates are already below policy rates," Capital Economics' Julian Evans-Pritchard and Zichun Huang wrote in a note. "But the PBOC tends to use changes in policy rates as signaling tool, with the heavy lifting being done by other tools such as adjustments to reserve requirements and bank loan quotas," they added.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Zichun Huang Organizations: People's Bank of, People's Bank of China, Country Locations: People's Bank of China, Hong Kong
Retail sales - a key gauge of consumer confidence - rose 12.7%, missing forecasts of 13.6% growth and slowing from April's 18.4%. Data ranging from factory surveys and trade to loan growth and home sales have shown signs of weakness for the world's second-biggest economy. China's stock markets rose after the rates cut, with the benchmark CSI 300 gaining 0.6% in early trade, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 1.2%. The sector is expected to grapple with "persistent weakness" for years, dragging on economic growth, Goldman Sachs analysts said this week. The country's biggest banks recently cut their deposit rates to ease pressure on profit margins and encourage savers to spend more.
Persons: China's, Zhiwei Zhang, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Pang, Hong, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Yi, Goldman Sachs, Albee Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Jones, CSI, Capital Economics, Investment, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, outflows
China cuts short-term borrowing costs as economy slows
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
SummarySummary Companies PBOC lowers 7-day reverse repo to 1.9% vs. 2.0% prev. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, when it injected 2 billion yuan ($279.97 million) through the short-term bond instrument. "The central bank's rate cut decision was not a complete surprise to the market," said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. Tuesday's rate cut suggests policymakers are increasingly worried about the health of China's recovery, traders and analysts said. "However, the market is expecting the PBOC to cut the policy rate further.
Persons: 10bp, Ken Cheung, Yi Gang, Cheung, Marco Sun, Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank, OCBC Bank, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, United States, outflows
LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar fell slightly on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data, while China’s yuan slipped to a six-month low after the central bank lowered a short-term lending rate to boost the economy. That helped push the dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, down 0.26% to 103.32. The onshore yuan bottomed at 7.168 per dollar, its lowest since last November, and last traded at 7.152. Its offshore counterpart weakened to a new six-month low of 7.178, before paring its losses slightly. The Aussie dollar rose more than 0.4% to its highest since May 11 at $0.679, and was last at $0.678.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jane Foley, “ What’s, ” Foley, Julian Evans, Pritchard, ” Sterling Organizations: LONDON, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Rabobank, Fed, Capital Economics, of England, Bank of Japan Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, China
BEIJING, June 9 (Reuters) - China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery. "The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but recent indicators show demand is rapidly weakening with exports, imports and factory activity falling in May. Food price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 1.0% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 0.7%.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Dan Wang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Australia, Reuters, Capital Economics, Hang Seng Bank China, Bank of China, China's, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Europe, China
"The PMI surveys suggest that China's economic recovery was still ongoing in May, albeit at a slower pace. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan also saw factory activity shrink in May, while that of the Philippines expanded, the surveys showed. Asia's economy is heavily reliant on the strength of China's recovery, which has been uneven with services spending outperforming activity in export-oriented sectors. In forecasts released in May, the International Monetary Fund said it expects Asia's economy to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% gain in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Wang Zhe, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, Capital Economics, P Global, Caixin Insight, Jibun, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, TOKYO, China, Japan, Asia, South, Malaysia, Philippines
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